Futuring AI and design
Design pedagogy: foresight into the future of AI
Summary
Futuring as a design methodology is about exploring the future as plural. Speculative design — utilizing probability cones and the futures wheel, is a tool for consequence analysis and is a key futuring framework. The rise in the popularity of AI tools necessitates designers to take a proactive approach to consider their broader implications; therefore, through futuring, designers can contribute to shaping a responsible and beneficial future for AI.
Futuring as design pedagogy
We are currently at a fascinating turning point in technology and design and the relationship between computers and human work. It is essential to consider the possibilities and how we might shape the future of AI as designers working in the field of product design.
I want to share some thoughtful exercises to help us open our minds about the possibilities and potential future of AI as we shape it. The exercise is called futuring.
Design futures
To start, I want to explain why I think this exercise is important — kind of the WHY NOW?! As we all have been experiencing the mass adoption and popularity of AI tools over the last year, we see that it’s not going away. In fact, adoption is only continuing to increase.
As Jakob Nielson from the NN Group outlined last year, we have essentially reached a new, or 3rd paradigm in computing history, where our interaction with computers has shifted to become intent-based and outcome-specific — meaning that we tell the computer what outcome we want rather than specifying how it should be accomplished. This is a new way of working with computers and the tools are really interesting.
I’m not here to talk about all the hype (there sure is a lot of it), but to get past this part, I’ve realized how prevalent the content really is. There is article after article, website after website, to learn how to use these new tools, find new tools to try, and design for them. I have begun to realize that we all are affected by the influx of these new tools, and whether we have tried them or not, it’s impossible to ignore.
AHH, it’s overwhelming!
UX of AI
But anyway, the takeaway here couldn’t be better written than on the website UX of AI.
“Artificial Intelligence shapes how we think, feel and behave. It drives the decisions that define our future.
We have the responsibility to use this potential for humane technology. Building an AI based on our diverse values and needs requires thoughtful design.”
Which brings me back to futuring.
What is futuring?
Specifically I am talking about a methodology that comes from a book called Future Ethics by Cennydd Bowles. Which specifies that futuring is to see the future as plural. It is to visualize all potential or possible outcomes. It is to use specific modelling tools that can aid our imaginative thought not just about the future, but about the current atmosphere in which we work.
This theory and process is, in fact, something that has come from science fiction. But it is maybe more well-known as a field of design called speculative design, popularized by Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby in their book and project: Speculative Everything.
Speculative design
This is the first form of futuring and thought exercises I’ve seen adapted to the design industry. It is a series of cones fanning out from the present to the future:
The first cone is probable futures — this is where most designers operate. It covers what is most likely going to happen.
The next is plausible futures in the space of planning and foresight — think what-if scenarios.
Then comes possible futures as the widest cone — this is the realm of fantasy and has few links to reality.
The final cone is preferable futures — which spans an intersection between possible and probable and or could be anywhere in between. This is a difficult field to identify because you have to think about what it means to be preferable, who decides this, and why?
Design futuring
When thinking about futurism as a methodology, speculative design is one way to look at this. However, the one that Cennydd covers in his book (Future Ethics) is a little more mappable. He uses a futures wheel to model potential futures and unintended consequences. He explains it as “a kind of structured brainstorming” about the future.
Step 1
To start running a futuring exercise, identify a root trend or technology that you want to explore.
Step 2
In another ring around it, write some of its potential consequences.
Step 3
Write out potential second-order consequences of each new scenario in a second-ring
Step 4
Pair nodes anywhere on the wheel and imagine if both futures come true.
For example, you used the central theme to “increase small and less expensive computer communication devices.”
Then, for the 1st-level nodes, an example could be increasing awareness of other new technologies.
Design futuring examples
Then, when you get to the secondary level nodes, an example might be “life becoming more complex.”
Another futures wheel diagram might involve separating them into sections based on the type of impact, such as psychological, technological, or political.
You can even go a bit crazy and break them down to blend the futures cone and futures wheel into one diagram so you include past, present, and future to give further context to the diagram.
How futuring can be used to think about AI
Another way we could use this diagramming method to think about AI is to utilize the separation of categories similar to one of the above examples but more tailored to technology and AI, like security and usability, to make it easier to fill out the nodes.
But for now, I just wanted to introduce the concept because as we continue working more and more with AI tools and designing for AI, I think it is imperative to run these types of exercises to consider the broad scope and vision for how we would like to work in this new field as well as how it could unfold across the industry as a whole.
This is a very vision-ey exercise, but it provides a lot of value as a way to generate compelling stories about the possible impacts and ethics of our decisions. Futuring isn’t about accurate prediction but rather about opening one’s eyes to possibility and potential.
Thanks for reading!
